Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Discussion of all things crypto and blockchain.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Dec 04, 2017

XFactor wrote:I understand the tech....


This is doubtful. Perhaps you understand the theory of how bitcoin works, and the idea behind a blockchain, but I doubt anyone on this forum truly and fully understands the tech. Maybe silverpv.

Do you understand elliptical curve cryptography or ECDSA, signature hashing, hierarchical deterministic wallets, unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) and change addresses? These are a few of the complex concepts behind the tech. I'm in the middle of reading Mastering Bitcoin by Andreas. It is a book for programmers, and I am not a programmer. It is dense material that explains the tech.

I point this out to highlight the fact that bitcoin is not easy to understand, but that doesn't mean it is difficult to use or participate in the ecosystem. Many people board airplanes every day. How many of them fully grasp the concept of lift, air speed, air displacement, drag, and the litany of other tech advances that have to go into a fully functional airplane hurtling through the sky? But they are placing their very lives in that tech, and in the pilots to properly execute these concepts with skill. So if we put our lives in the hands of those pilots without fully grasping all the tech, perhaps we can still voluntarily transact peer-to-peer over the internet without fully understanding all the tech too. And if we put $100 into crypto and completely mess it up because we broadcasted our private key on Facebook, worst case we lose our $100, and not fall out of the sky.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Mon Dec 04, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:
XFactor wrote:I understand the tech....


I point this out to highlight the fact that bitcoin is not easy to understand.


I've been in Bitcoin for 4 years and I don't understand it. Satoshi Nakamoto couldn't explain it either. Read his code.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby tdtwedt » Mon Dec 04, 2017

Rodebaugh wrote:
cmiller17363 wrote:There are rumors of the CME trading futures for bitcoin. I'm pretty ignorant of this sort of stuff but if that happens, wouldn't it be easier for the price to be even more manipulated? Would it be like gold and silver paper manipulation?


Not rumors.....she goes live Dec 18th. I would like to take this opportunity to welcome Bitcoin to mainstream manipulation. For better or worse tis' the way of the world.

Just wait until we start seeing leveraged etf derivatives. :wave:



Cboe announces bitcoin futures to start trading Sunday

•The Cboe Futures Exchange plans to offer trading in bitcoin futures beginning 6 p.m., ET, Sunday.
•The news follows CME's announcement Friday that the world's largest futures exchange will launch bitcoin futures on Dec. 18.
•Trading in the Cboe bitcoin futures contract will be free through December, according to a release.


https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/cboe-an ... ec-10.html
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby XFactor » Mon Dec 04, 2017

I would say that you're very well-versed with the technology and inner workings of Bitcoin I would say that you understand the tech but nobody understands at 100% so don't split hairs

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Dec 04, 2017

Altima wrote:Do you even know what a ponzi scheme is?

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors.



Looks like you got that from Investopedia, but conveniently left out the next sentence:

The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors.

This goes directly to my question: " if this is indeed a ponzi, when is it too late to be an early investor?"

So it looks like I do know what a ponzi scheme is. :roll:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Dec 04, 2017

jcz1 wrote:
Altima wrote:Do you even know what a ponzi scheme is?

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors.



Looks like you got that from Investopedia, but conveniently left out the next sentence:

The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors.

This goes directly to my question: " if this is indeed a ponzi, when is it too late to be an early investor?"

So it looks like I do know what a ponzi scheme is. :roll:


No. A ponzi scheme pays out older investors with new investor money. If new investor money stops coming in, old investors who are expecting a rate of return don't get paid. This is exactly how social security works. Social security is the greatest ponzi ever invented, and the genius is if you fail to pay your share of this ponzi, your friendly government can put you behind bars.

Bitcoin does not generate returns. Some only believe it does because they see the USD price rising and falling. It is a currency. What you are seeing is the purchasing power of this currency increase relative to EVERY other (inflationary) currency in existence.

So to get to your question - when is it too late to be an early investor? You've asked the wrong question. The question you need to ask is whether or not bitcoin will achieve any type of mass adoption. Is it superior to other forms of currency and will people desire it over their fiat? If the answer is yes, then being an early adopter will help you gain future purchasing power as your entry cost is lower relative to later adopters. But let's say that bitcoin stays a "fringe" currency and only a sub-section of the population adopt it because they love inflation and declining purchasing power. Then at some point it will stabilize and merely be priced based primarily on its utility value. At that point the speculation value would diminish and the USD price would drop. So the question remains - what is the superior currency, and will people adopt it? Once you answer that, you answer the most important question.

Bitcoin isn't dependent on investors generating returns. Like every other form of currency, it is dependent on people believing it will buy them goods and services later, and other people will accept it, and they have faith that the value behind the currency won't be destroyed. Of note, it is also the first global voluntary currency ever invented. There is no king or queen stamped on each bitcoin block.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Dec 04, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:
jcz1 wrote:
Altima wrote:Do you even know what a ponzi scheme is?

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors.



Looks like you got that from Investopedia, but conveniently left out the next sentence:

The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors.

This goes directly to my question: " if this is indeed a ponzi, when is it too late to be an early investor?"

So it looks like I do know what a ponzi scheme is. :roll:


No. A ponzi scheme pays out older investors with new investor money. If new investor money stops coming in, old investors who are expecting a rate of return don't get paid. .


It's interesting how you conveniently start the quote making it look like I was the one who started the ponzi scheme discussion. :roll:

Altima was the one that suggested it, I simply played along. He then claimed I didn't know what a ponzi scheme was based on my question of is it too late. The question is relevant IF it is a ponzi scheme, which I never said it was.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Dec 04, 2017

jcz1 wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:
jcz1 wrote:
Altima wrote:Do you even know what a ponzi scheme is?

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investing scam promising high rates of return with little risk to investors.



Looks like you got that from Investopedia, but conveniently left out the next sentence:

The Ponzi scheme generates returns for older investors by acquiring new investors.

This goes directly to my question: " if this is indeed a ponzi, when is it too late to be an early investor?"

So it looks like I do know what a ponzi scheme is. :roll:


No. A ponzi scheme pays out older investors with new investor money. If new investor money stops coming in, old investors who are expecting a rate of return don't get paid. .


It's interesting how you conveniently start the quote making it look like I was the one who started the ponzi scheme discussion. :roll:

Altima was the one that suggested it, I simply played along. He then claimed I didn't know what a ponzi scheme was based on my question of is it too late. The question is relevant IF it is a ponzi scheme, which I never said it was.


I see a lot of eye rolling going on here. Now that I know we are all just playing along, and our definitions are clear, let's get back to the regular programming:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Dec 04, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:Here is the difference. If TPTB do to bitcoin what they did to silver, the crypto community will move on to the next crypto instead.


This statement (from another thread, regarding futures) made me wonder where the value of bitcoin is coming from.

I thought people here had said the the blockchain technology is disruptive, which gives bitcoin its value. This article (from 2015) says this as well:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertrose ... e717861f11

But your statement earlier seems to say that its usefulness as a currency is going to give it value. If so, the statement quoted above gives me pause. Let's say more places accept bitcoin over time, but also that TPTB start manipulating it and significantly lower its price (in USD). So all you guys move on to another crypto. But if all these businesses are already accepting bitcoin - do you really expect them to all change to another one?

If it is the technology, how does blockchain give bitcoin value (the Forbes article didn't explain how either). It is open-source, so can't anyone use if for free?

During my (admittedly quick) research into the value question, I came across this IBM page that mentions industies using blockchain, which I thought some might find interesting:

https://www.ibm.com/blockchain/industries/

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Dec 04, 2017

jcz1 wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:Here is the difference. If TPTB do to bitcoin what they did to silver, the crypto community will move on to the next crypto instead.


This statement (from another thread, regarding futures) made me wonder where the value of bitcoin is coming from.

I thought people here had said the the blockchain technology is disruptive, which gives bitcoin its value. This article (from 2015) says this as well:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertrose ... e717861f11

But your statement earlier seems to say that its usefulness as a currency is going to give it value. If so, the statement quoted above gives me pause. Let's say more places accept bitcoin over time, but also that TPTB start manipulating it and significantly lower its price (in USD). So all you guys move on to another crypto. But if all these businesses are already accepting bitcoin - do you really expect them to all change to another one?

If it is the technology, how does blockchain give bitcoin value (the Forbes article didn't explain how either). It is open-source, so can't anyone use if for free?

During my (admittedly quick) research into the value question, I came across this IBM page that mentions industies using blockchain, which I thought some might find interesting:

https://www.ibm.com/blockchain/industries/


I have talked value proposition many times. Please go back and read this thread or search a bit.

As to your other concern. It is about ease-of-use user interfaces. There is already a way for a company to accept multiple crypto currencies just as easy as it is to accept only bitcoin. It will be agnostic to the merchant. The software will allow a customer to select any crypto they want, and the merchant will be able to convert it to any crypto or fiat they want all behind the scenes in seconds (or less). It will be easy. It will be no extra cost to the merchant. You just don't have it in merchant mass adoption, yet. It will be here. You have to think 4th dimension-ally (dimension #4 is time).
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Dec 04, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:I have talked value proposition many times. Please go back and read this thread or search a bit.


I found this:

SilverDoge wrote:1) Where do I place my trust? In bitcoin and crypto, my trust is placed in free markets, and that humans will act in their own self-interests. What do I mean? It takes a high level of consensus to change bitcoin's governance, and therefore its algorithms. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins because there is no way anybody could ever get a consensus to change that number. Just look at how hard it is to get a consensus over something we all want - to fix the scaling problems. Bitcoin's blockchain is open source for anyone to verify. With GoldMoney, I need to place my trust in that company, and Brink's. I also need to trust that whichever nation I choose (US, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc) to use for my storage, would never raid, steal, or outlaw my gold holdings. I also need to trust that the gold is actually there, not rehypothecated or being "owned" by more than the stated owner. Am I trusting a company audit, a 3rd party auditor, who? These are all counter party risks. The old gold saying of "if you don't hold it you don't own it" rings true for a lot of people. So while I understand what GoldMoney is trying to do, it creates this level of risk and trust in people I don't know, will never meet, and have nothing more than a legal obligation (I assume) to act on my behalf. And what if the company goes bankrupt? Or gets nationalized by a corrupt government?


This talks more about how secure bitcoin is because of the blockchain, and is therefore a reason for bitcoin to succeed as a (non-fringe) currency.

This isn't quite what I'm asking. If bitcoin remains a fringe currency, but the blockchain technology sees widespread adoption and uses, how does that create value within bitcoin (i.e., increase the price in terms of USD)? I don't see how it does. Maybe I misunderstood, and no one ever claimed it did.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Dec 05, 2017

What gives Bitcoin (crypto currency) value, compilation post in reverse chronological order:

From 22SEP17 (Bitcoin beginner thread): http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=28780#p549810
Previous bubbles in the stock markets or real estate have obvious benchmarks to compare against both historically, year over year, and against other markets. Stocks have Price/Earnings ratios, dividends, and other metrics where prices are based on future earnings. Real estate has both rent value equivalents, replacement value level (construction), and Price/Annual Income. If you are paying 15 times your annual salary for a house, it is historically WAY overpriced. These metrics tell us if/when a bubble is forming.
Money & currency are different. They are arguable always in a bubble, because their usage is based on confidence in the underlying system and network. There is no price/earnings because there are no earnings. Now some cryptos will have earnings (DBET), but currencies like bitcoin will not. Bitcoin's value is simply derived from the amount which other people are willing to trade other currencies for it. So if there is a party willing to give $3k or $15k for a single bitcoin, then that will establish a market price. One could argue it is irrational to pay "x" price for 1 bitcoin, but that is a theoretical and subjective opinion. If bitcoin is a superior currency in theory and reality (and it is), why not acquire it with depreciating fiat that can be printed to infinity? The smart play is to acquire as much of the best currency as possible as cheaply as possible.

From 18SEP17: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&start=1580#p549184
Bitcoin is not a company with revenues. It is a competing currency to every fiat currency out there. So when you say the $$$ will dry up, I say no, the $$$$ will be printed, inflated, and become a very poor store of value. The dollar may be the strongest of the fiats, but it is still fiat, and we still have a $20 Trillion debt (not counting unfunded liabilities). So as more fiat is inevitably printed, the one currency that isn't being inflated away will stand as the beacon, the true safe haven.
In the future, you will see prices listed in dollars and milli-bits (of bitcoin) in America, euros and milli-bits in Europe, yen and milli-bits in Japan. Then, one day (perhaps years or decades away), the bitcoin price will be the more important price, and the fiat price will fade away.
If this reality happens, imagine owning just 1 bitcoin and how powerful that will be. You can do that today for less than $4k. In 5 years, it will cost much, much more (in dollars).

From 15SEP17: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&start=1580#p548997
Fiat is literally an authoritative decree. Like the USD which has no value except that the government declared it so, and you must pay taxes with it - and so we all play along like it has value as we get poorer each year through inflation (stealth tax). That is fiat. Bitcoin is nearly the exact opposite. There is no person, entity, or government forcing or declaring anyone to use bitcoin for anything. Completely voluntary, with many people and governments fighting it the whole way. Bitcoin has the largest computer network, loads of computer programmers, the protocol itself, the user network, the infrastructure, etc etc. It has utility because people use it and believe that it has utility. That is what matters, and as governments continue to print ad nausea, both crypto and PMs (if they weren't heavily manipulated) will rise in "price" relative to the fiat currencies of the world. But remember 1 bitcoin, will always be worth 1 bitcoin.

From 04SEP17: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&start=1500#p547229
Bitcoin is nearly the exact opposite (of fiat). There is no person, entity, or government forcing or declaring anyone to use bitcoin for anything. Completely voluntary, with many people and governments fighting it the whole way. Nothing backing it up? Besides the largest computer network, the computer programmers, the protocol itself, the user network, the infrastructure, etc etc. If by nothing backing it up, he means no government forcing it down our throats at the threat of jail or a gun - then yes, he is correct.
So, if a government uses a cryptocurrency and claims it is backed by gold, or oil, or chickens, it is completely irrelevant. Why? Because 1) we don't believe them. They have lost the faith of the people, they have no credibility. When was the last time the US gold holdings were audited for real? 1953? And we don't even use the gold for anything - it isn't backing the USD, but still it is shrouded in secrecy. 2) The whole point of a crypto is decentralization - which you can't have if the government is controlling the currency. Yes, they can still use a blockchain, but so what. 3) Who will verify what the chosen commodity to back the crypto exists, and there is enough of it there? Will it be redeemable for that commodity? Answer - no it won't be.
I get how gold bugs may want to merge crypto and gold (or oil) into a new currency system but in order to implement it, a government would have to remove all the best features of the crypto. What these people don't get (or do they?) is that crypto allows us to remove currency control from the power of governments, and into the hands of the users, miners & programmers. That is called technological and societal disruption.

From 08AUG17: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&start=1400#p542809
1) Mish says: Bitcoins are the new beaver pelts of monetary transactions. For thousands of years, when available by free choice, gold has always been the currency of demand. Things like salt, cigarettes, beaver pelts, and recently Bitcoin, come and go. This is true. However, they (bitcoins) are the best form of "beaver pelts" ever invented. All those previous currencies Mish mentions are local currencies where people physically need to exchange goods/value face to face. Not crypto. If something better than crypto comes along, I can transition into that. Until then, crypto is king.

From 02JUN17: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&start=1180#p533343
I find it interesting that people can just use the term crypto bubble and coming crash, or a comparison to the dot com bubble and the next one for crypto is right around the corner and nobody challenges this bubble mentality because the price (in fiat dollars) is going up. Perspective....
Market capitalization of single companies:
Google: $682 billion
Apple: $812 billion
Microsoft: $556 billion
Verizon: $188 billion
Cisco: $161 billion
All of these single companies have market caps larger than the TOTAL market cap of EVERY crypto out there at $89 billion currently. But it is a huge bubble about to crash? Is your hairdresser giving you crypto advice? Is your uber driver giving you a hot crypto tip on the next big decentralized smart contract ICO? Not a bubble. People want it to be a bubble so that they feel justified sitting on the sidelines and can think themselves smart for not getting caught up in that crypto fad. Fad or trend - I think the question has answered itself.

From 22MAY17: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&start=1080#p531525
So the factors involved in valuing these digital currencies comes down to 1) market adoption, 2) network effects, 3) technological edge, 4) ease of use, 5) speed, 6) anonymity 7) fees for use, 8) inflationary vs deflationary, 9) governance, 10) PoW vs PoS and other factors. So bitcoin is the obvious leader as it has huge network effects, the largest market adoption and it was the original crypto [hat tip]. In my view, it has speed problems, governance issues, isn't completely anonymous, and it will be hoarded as it is deflationary. This is why I like PIVX and see it as undervalued if one has a long term time horizon. PIVX has the important stuff, just not the adoption and network effects, yet. That said, I don't know if it or any other crypto currency will ever overtake the king bitcoin, measured in USD. There are many unknowns involved. I think bitcoin $10,000 is inevitable in the next 3-5 years (or sooner).

From 03MAR17 - Bucketeer: http://www.bullionstacker.com/viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&start=760#p518516
1 bitcoin is as scarce as 238 ounces of gold (when 21m are created; today 1 bitcoin is as scarce as ~450 ounces of gold)
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Tue Dec 05, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:What gives Bitcoin (crypto currency) value, compilation post in reverse chronological order:
...


Thanks, very helpful. :clap:

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Fusion » Tue Dec 05, 2017

Guns kill people the same way pencils misspell wurds.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Tue Dec 05, 2017

This is one of the best bitcoin articles I've read, which is authored by Michael Krieger
https://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2017/12/04/expect-desperate-and-insane-behavior-from-government-in-2018-part-2-bitcoin/
A few quotes below, buy you need to read the whole thing.

Bitcoin is a system designed to be everything the status quo isn’t. Decentralized, transparent, permissionless, with a well-defined and restricted monetary supply curve.

One thing that’s become increasingly clear to me as I’ve added years and experiences to my life, is that governments, generally speaking, hate freedom. It’s why something as beneficial and benign as cannabis remains illegal throughout the world, and why people like Jeff Sessions still want to criminalize it even in states where the actual people living there voted to make it legal.

Younger generations are particularly aware, as they’ve been thrust into a parasitic system designed to prey upon them via a lifetime of debt serfdom. The more people learn about the way the world really works, the more they’ll want to reject it and create something entirely different. This is where Bitcoin and crypto assets come into play.

The financial system as it’s currently constructed is being publicly rejected with every uptick in the Bitcoin price, and with every billion dollars added to total crypto asset market capitalization. Naturally, this will make those in charge of the current predatory system, and those who have benefited most from it (oligarchs), increasingly hostile to its popularity.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby BigJim#1-8 » Tue Dec 05, 2017

Bitter Clinger, Deplorable, Virulent, Dreg of Society. & Proud of it.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Tue Dec 05, 2017

BigJim#1-8 wrote:http://blogs.findlaw.com/ninth_circuit/2017/12/federal-court-orders-bitcoin-exchange-to-report-users-to-irs.html


Feds want their cut..... :pop:


Old news, already covered:

viewtopic.php?f=108&t=15864&p=558498&hilit=2015#p558498

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby XFactor » Tue Dec 05, 2017

Guys, I don't know if mods will frown on this but I have set up a discord for us to talk about these topics related to AU, AG, and Cryptocurrencies.
https://discord.gg/vf4G8RY
Give it a shot!

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Double3 » Tue Dec 05, 2017

Blew through 12,000 and GDAX crashed....


Back up now.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Tue Dec 05, 2017

SilverDoge wrote:
Bucketeer wrote:NY Times. Why Bitcoin Matters.

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/21/why-bitcoin-matters/

BTW.....I don't believe the predictions of $50K Bitcoin in 2021. Bitcoin is here to stay. Buy in and Buckle up for the ride.

When a Bear becomes a Long Bull, study the proposition.


While that is an old article (2014) it is a good one. I especially like the throwback to Milton Friedman predicting a bitcoin like "internet magic money" in 1999. Smart dude.

So you left us hanging in the lurch. If you don't believe the $50k bitcoin prediction for 2021, does that mean it will hit that mark sooner or later? Interested parties want to know.

:pop: :grinch: :pop: :grinch:


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