Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Discussion of all things crypto and blockchain.
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SilverDoge
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Sun Feb 11, 2018

jcz1 wrote:Thought everyone might enjoy this graphical look at history. (Note the title says "crashes" but each square uses the term "correction" instead.):


Of note, the largest correction was 87% and 411 days long. This is where I cut my teeth on bitcoin. Do I think we see that long and drawn out correction this time? No, but it is important to realize that it is at least possible.

On the other hand: https://www.ccn.com/european-banks-soon-hold-bitcoin-admits-ecb-president/
ECB President Mario Draghi recently stated:
However, recent developments, such as the listing of Bitcoin futures contracts by US exchanges, could lead European banks too to hold positions in Bitcoin, and therefore we will certainly look at that.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Purple and Gold » Sun Feb 11, 2018

By the chart, it looks like Aug 19 2012 was the time to get on board the Bitcoin train.

I Love the Grannys who dig in their purse and count every penny on the counter at the register :)
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Bucketeer » Sun Feb 11, 2018

Silversummit wrote:
Bucketeer wrote:
See, this is my point. Buyers love paypal. Sellers, not so much.


Yeah, it is safe and easy. WTF?

Lol I hate PayPal but really like checks :D no cc here whatsoever. Cash , check , money order and crypto only from me as payment.


How do you buy anything on the web w/o PayPal or a credit card? I'm not real fond of using a debit account.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Silversummit » Sun Feb 11, 2018

Bucketeer wrote:
Silversummit wrote:
Bucketeer wrote:
See, this is my point. Buyers love paypal. Sellers, not so much.


Yeah, it is safe and easy. WTF?

Lol I hate PayPal but really like checks :D no cc here whatsoever. Cash , check , money order and crypto only from me as payment.


How do you buy anything on the web w/o PayPal or a credit card? I'm not real fond of using a debit account.

I don't support eBay anymore either but as for other purchases I have 1 debit card I keep little money in and transfer funds to that account as needed. If I can I almost always use a check for internet purchases and have been using some crypto if available as an option. I've been in a rush most my life , but I can patiently wait for things to arrive now. I'll admit I'm a stubborn pain in the azz but stick to my morals and ethics my parents raised me up with. Once I'm a done with any business I never go back. I contacted PayPal support numerous times with no help whatsoever.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby cmiller17363 » Mon Feb 12, 2018

https://youtu.be/UYHFrf5ci_g

An argument that the Lightning Network will centralize the bitcoin network to banks and cripple the freedom of bitcoin. I'm not that savvy on the LN so I wanted to see what you guys thought.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby SilverDoge » Mon Feb 12, 2018

cmiller17363 wrote:https://youtu.be/UYHFrf5ci_g

An argument that the Lightning Network will centralize the bitcoin network to banks and cripple the freedom of bitcoin. I'm not that savvy on the LN so I wanted to see what you guys thought.


My opinion is this guy is a bitcoin cash shill and is attempting to sway people into using Bcash over bitcoin with some flawed arguments (he has a 22JAN18 video highlighting features of Bcash). I am not a programmer and do not know all the ins/outs of LN's but that said...

About the video:

1) This guy picked "worst case scenario" data on his examples. Buying $30 worth of bitcoin and paying $15 in fees doesn't make much sense. That is why the developers are instituting solutions like SegWit & LN. So at first he bashes the fess, and then he follows up by bashing the solution to solve the fee problem... because he just wants to hit the "easy button" of larger block size.
2) This guy is making a lot of assumptions. That "hubs" will need to do full KYC and follow all financial regulations? Says who? Anyone with enough bitcoin can set up a payment channel and become a "hub" and I am not aware of any requirement to conduct full KYC and abide by all banking regulations. Some hubs may want to do that, but I do not HAVE to use the hubs in the same way that I do not HAVE to use centralized exchanges that require full KYC. He even has a follow up video created on 01FEB18 about this subject. Again simply making claims that I do not believe to be 100% factual:

3) This guy makes the assumption that I HAVE to use bitcoin. Again, bitcoin may turn into the "store of wealth" crypto while people transact in LTC, XMR, XRB, QRL, or a bunch of other cryptos to save money on fees and spend faster. Free market!
4) Blockstream isn't "selling" these payment channels. Anybody can set one up.
5) Let's look at fees today. He made this original video on 15DEC17 - the peak of the fee problem, as shown below. Let's look at it today with many wallet providers using SegWit now, companies batching transactions, and lightning network slowly being implemented:
mempool.png
mempool.png (268.84 KiB) Viewed 439 times

Link to chart: https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#3m
Also see this website. The current recommended fee is 0.00000678 BTC - very small. https://coinb.in/#fees

The thing is, centralization & decentralization are often a scale, with trade-offs. Bcash decided to up the block size to 8Mbs. That will create its own form of partial centralization as running a full node will take up much more server space and many people won't do it. Bitcoin chose layer 2 & 3 solutions to allow the average user to be able to continue running a full node, and now people can actually make money by setting up and "locking" bitcoin by setting up payment channels with LN. If the U.S. decided to heavily regulate LN channels, then I can simply pay my neighbor with bitcoin and route through a hub in Hong Kong (or wherever). Bitcoin is borderless.
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Long John
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Mon Feb 12, 2018

I've never heard of Bitstrade, but the NJ attorney general brought the fraud hammer down. Whenever someone offers "guaranteed returns" in the form of monthly interest, and the investment vehicle is not guaranteed to show a regular profit and in fact can suffer losses, I think the guaranteed interest payments must come from subsequent investors... in short, a Ponzi.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/fraudule ... regulators

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby BarsandStars » Mon Feb 12, 2018

jcz1 wrote:
tdtwedt wrote:
jcz1 wrote:
SilverDoge wrote:1) eBay will stop using PayPal by 2020: https://www.recode.net/2018/1/31/16957212/ebay-adyen-paypal-payments-agreement


That is a misleading statement. Here is what it actually say:

After the existing eBay-PayPal agreement ends in 2020, PayPal will remain a payment option for shoppers on eBay, but it won’t be prominently featured ahead of debit and credit card options as it is today. PayPal will cease to process card payments for eBay at that time.


Ebay has an existing contract to continue offering paypal as a payment option until July 2023.
https://www.engadget.com/2018/01/31/eba ... n-payment/

After 2020, it is unclear how Aydin is involved (from the buyer's perspective, sellers appear to be screwed, as usual) other than processing credit card payments. Does the buyer need an Aydin account, or does the crypto option appear alongside credit cards and paypal at checkout? We don't have answers to this right now, but expecting ebay buyers to abandon paypal for Aydin seems unrealistic, since paypal is accepted at so many other places now.


+1

I don't plan to stop using PayPal.

:pop:


See, this is my point. Buyers love paypal. Sellers, not so much.


As a buyer, I hate paypal. As a seller, I hate paypal.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Feb 12, 2018

BarsandStars wrote:As a buyer, I hate paypal. As a seller, I hate paypal.


Why, as a buyer, do you hate paypal?
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Mon Feb 12, 2018

I'm sure tdtwedt is very busy, or he would be chronicling the market's steady improvement since Feb. 6's faceplant. So I'll step in for him today. From FXstreet:

Bitcoin price analysis: Next challenge seen for BTC/USD at $9500, 61.8% Fibonacci
• Bitcoin up as much as 6% on Monday
• Market wide recovery resumes
• Next resistance seen at $9500, 61.8% Fibonacci

The Bitcoin price on Monday resumes a steady recovery, seen up as much as 6% in early trading. This falls in line with a general crypto market wide retracement, which is picking up some pace. After the rollercoaster of trading seen last week.

Momentum looks to be in the control of the bulls for the time being, they are on a mission to recoup the heavy losses encountered in the early part of this year already. Despite the notable change in sentiment, there is still evidence of cautiousness from investors within the market.

Looking technically at BTC/USD, to the upside, next battle of resistance is seen at around $9500, which is 61.8% Fibonacci. Given the push through former resistance at $8000, this will now act as support moving forward.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Silversummit » Mon Feb 12, 2018

jcz1 wrote:
BarsandStars wrote:As a buyer, I hate paypal. As a seller, I hate paypal.


Why, as a buyer, do you hate paypal?

For me , I had several bank accounts and a couple debit cards connected to my account back when I did use PP. I would choose what account I wanted to use and PayPal would charge the wrong account which at times had littlest to no money in them. ( I have a main bank account not tied to anything I have ever purchased or used online. I transfer funds as needed to the appropriate accounts for purchases). I contacted PP support numerous times and just got computer automated responses that never had anything to do with my issue. After about 2 months of trying to fix the issue I finally got to chat with an actual human with awful English. He couldn't understand my issue and was of no help also. PP would not let me cancel or close my account so I closed all bank accounts and debit cards associated with PayPal, opened some new accounts and will never use them for anything again. Like I've said before once a business gets on my bad side I never go back. I understand it's convenient for most but is out of my life for good. :D
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Brick's » Mon Feb 12, 2018

jcz1 wrote:Thought everyone might enjoy this graphical look at history. (Note the title says "crashes" but each square uses the term "correction" instead.):


Generally speaking it looks like how Bitcoin goes so does the market. All dates, amounts, and days are approximate and rounded. Missing from the charts are the time prior to the 1/12/12 correction from a high of $7.38. Prior to this we had an bull upswing from 11/20/11 starting from $2.28 and a correction prior to this falling on 6/15/11 from $19.68. Neither look to be an outlier as a data point. They represent an upswing of about 224% over 53 days and a correction of 89% over 157 days giving us a total of 14 corrections including the charts.

9 of the 14 corrections were between 30% and 50%, and the rest higher. So almost a 2/3 chance. But over a 1/3 chance of an over 50% correction. Without looking closer, I'd say a 15% to 20% stop loss would be prudent. This given if you could get out. Half of the corrections are over 5 days or less.

But, if we are only looking at correction then we are only getting half the picture. The bull upswings covering the dates between the charts are interesting to look at also. Three of the upswings totaling 44 days averaged a return of over 17% per day. They represent about 1.73% of the total days since the correction around 6/15/11 so I consider them market exuberance and outliers as a result. But boy, don't you wish you could have gotten that return for those 44 days? That kind of return makes people wealthy. Like it turns $1,000 into $1,000,000 in six weeks!

Only one other upswing was as short as 16 days but it only returned a total of 61% and is much more in line with other upswings giving an average daily return of 3.8%. Two of the upswings ranged from a low of 1%/D to 7.2%/D average return over 786 days and 220 days respectively and represent almost 42% of the time charted or 786% and 1,578% total returns respectively. One other upswing averaged 7.3%/D but only lasted 35 days. This was our last bull run prior to the just experienced correction.

This leaves 7 bull runs from between 16 and 230 days long and from 1.6 to 7.3 avg %/D. Two were over 200 days (203 and 230) long and had an average daily return of 1.6 and 2.6%/D respectively. One of 4.2%/D lasted 53 days and is the bull run mentioned in the first paragraph.

This leaves us with four bull runs, all being in consecutive order before the last bull run we experienced. All were between an average of 3.0 and 3.8%/D range, had a cumulative total of 178 Days and averaged 3.4%/D return. These also occurred over the last year starting in March of '17.

As far as being able to predict what we will get from our last correction of 70%, (going by the 3 prior corrections of >80%) we could either have a prolonged time of very low average %/D returns or returns higher than what we've seen for the average this last year. That is if past performance doesn't repeat it self but rhymes instead.

Given Long John's post, looks like it might be the latter. Or is it to early to tell?

Given the above evidence, one would have to be either really risk averse or a fool not to be involved in this market. Especially with fiat U$D one can afford to lose.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Mon Feb 12, 2018

Re: the PayPal discussion. PP forfeits millions every month by not cracking down on the fee-less Friends & Family payments that are actually for Goods & Services. Maybe they have a fair idea of how much of that goes on, but realize that many of those people would simply take their business elsewhere, so PP accepts it as the price of being as big as they are. As long as it's not too blatant, not too much money received from "friends" on a daily basis, they are willing to look the other way. But luck can be pushed too far. I know of a couple of BS members who had extremely generous friends & family :lol: and a red flag went up at PP. I never rose to that level, whatever it is, myself. I've sent big shipments of silver for PPFF, but they were few and far between. I was actually glad when some people asked if they could pay by check. You sure can! :thumbup:

What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Not sure, but it's a topic that interests a lot f BSers.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby cmiller17363 » Mon Feb 12, 2018

SilverDoge wrote:
cmiller17363 wrote:https://youtu.be/UYHFrf5ci_g

An argument that the Lightning Network will centralize the bitcoin network to banks and cripple the freedom of bitcoin. I'm not that savvy on the LN so I wanted to see what you guys thought.


My opinion is this guy is a bitcoin cash shill and is attempting to sway people into using Bcash over bitcoin with some flawed arguments (he has a 22JAN18 video highlighting features of Bcash). I am not a programmer and do not know all the ins/outs of LN's but that said...

About the video:

1) This guy picked "worst case scenario" data on his examples. Buying $30 worth of bitcoin and paying $15 in fees doesn't make much sense. That is why the developers are instituting solutions like SegWit & LN. So at first he bashes the fess, and then he follows up by bashing the solution to solve the fee problem... because he just wants to hit the "easy button" of larger block size.
2) This guy is making a lot of assumptions. That "hubs" will need to do full KYC and follow all financial regulations? Says who? Anyone with enough bitcoin can set up a payment channel and become a "hub" and I am not aware of any requirement to conduct full KYC and abide by all banking regulations. Some hubs may want to do that, but I do not HAVE to use the hubs in the same way that I do not HAVE to use centralized exchanges that require full KYC. He even has a follow up video created on 01FEB18 about this subject. Again simply making claims that I do not believe to be 100% factual:

3) This guy makes the assumption that I HAVE to use bitcoin. Again, bitcoin may turn into the "store of wealth" crypto while people transact in LTC, XMR, XRB, QRL, or a bunch of other cryptos to save money on fees and spend faster. Free market!
4) Blockstream isn't "selling" these payment channels. Anybody can set one up.
5) Let's look at fees today. He made this original video on 15DEC17 - the peak of the fee problem, as shown below. Let's look at it today with many wallet providers using SegWit now, companies batching transactions, and lightning network slowly being implemented:
mempool.png
Link to chart: https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#3m
Also see this website. The current recommended fee is 0.00000678 BTC - very small. https://coinb.in/#fees

The thing is, centralization & decentralization are often a scale, with trade-offs. Bcash decided to up the block size to 8Mbs. That will create its own form of partial centralization as running a full node will take up much more server space and many people won't do it. Bitcoin chose layer 2 & 3 solutions to allow the average user to be able to continue running a full node, and now people can actually make money by setting up and "locking" bitcoin by setting up payment channels with LN. If the U.S. decided to heavily regulate LN channels, then I can simply pay my neighbor with bitcoin and route through a hub in Hong Kong (or wherever). Bitcoin is borderless.

Thank you for the response SD! I had a hunch this was the case.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby jcz1 » Mon Feb 12, 2018

Long John wrote:What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Not sure, but it's a topic that interests a lot f BSers.


This ties to Bitcoin in that ebay is switching to Aydin which will allow Bitcoin, but will still accept paypal through at least 2023. Thus the discussion of paypal vs bitcoin, from a buyers perspective on ebay.

How Aydin will handle Bitcoin for sellers is unknown at this time. They will also handle CCs for ebay at some point, so it seems that they will need to send USD to sellers. What if a seller wants Bitcoin instead of USD? Again, unknown.
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby silverpv » Mon Feb 12, 2018

SilverDoge wrote:
cmiller17363 wrote:https://youtu.be/UYHFrf5ci_g

An argument that the Lightning Network will centralize the bitcoin network to banks and cripple the freedom of bitcoin. I'm not that savvy on the LN so I wanted to see what you guys thought.


My opinion is this guy is a bitcoin cash shill and is attempting to sway people into using Bcash over bitcoin with some flawed arguments (he has a 22JAN18 video highlighting features of Bcash). I am not a programmer and do not know all the ins/outs of LN's but that said...

About the video:

1) This guy picked "worst case scenario" data on his examples. Buying $30 worth of bitcoin and paying $15 in fees doesn't make much sense. That is why the developers are instituting solutions like SegWit & LN. So at first he bashes the fess, and then he follows up by bashing the solution to solve the fee problem... because he just wants to hit the "easy button" of larger block size.
2) This guy is making a lot of assumptions. That "hubs" will need to do full KYC and follow all financial regulations? Says who? Anyone with enough bitcoin can set up a payment channel and become a "hub" and I am not aware of any requirement to conduct full KYC and abide by all banking regulations. Some hubs may want to do that, but I do not HAVE to use the hubs in the same way that I do not HAVE to use centralized exchanges that require full KYC. He even has a follow up video created on 01FEB18 about this subject. Again simply making claims that I do not believe to be 100% factual:

3) This guy makes the assumption that I HAVE to use bitcoin. Again, bitcoin may turn into the "store of wealth" crypto while people transact in LTC, XMR, XRB, QRL, or a bunch of other cryptos to save money on fees and spend faster. Free market!
4) Blockstream isn't "selling" these payment channels. Anybody can set one up.
5) Let's look at fees today. He made this original video on 15DEC17 - the peak of the fee problem, as shown below. Let's look at it today with many wallet providers using SegWit now, companies batching transactions, and lightning network slowly being implemented:
mempool.png
Link to chart: https://dedi.jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#3m
Also see this website. The current recommended fee is 0.00000678 BTC - very small. https://coinb.in/#fees

The thing is, centralization & decentralization are often a scale, with trade-offs. Bcash decided to up the block size to 8Mbs. That will create its own form of partial centralization as running a full node will take up much more server space and many people won't do it. Bitcoin chose layer 2 & 3 solutions to allow the average user to be able to continue running a full node, and now people can actually make money by setting up and "locking" bitcoin by setting up payment channels with LN. If the U.S. decided to heavily regulate LN channels, then I can simply pay my neighbor with bitcoin and route through a hub in Hong Kong (or wherever). Bitcoin is borderless.


1.) To add some context to this. Dude does make some assumptions but they aren't out of the ordinary. Let's add some context to the situation.

As of now, Bitcoin is at a 2 year low volume wise which is why the fees are lower.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/tr ... -sma3.html

This shift has effectively segmented btc and bch into currency vs. storage. Fee's are lower because fewer people are using bitcoin. If you go back to the price of bitcoin at its current volume, it would be at $600-$800. It's up to you to decide if this is a good thing or not but the use of Segwit and LN are useless if the network is not fully utilized. Why open a channel on LN and pay the fee, if you don't have to and can use onchain, unless you want to hide the transaction, which if you did you would use monero anyways.

2.) The whole point about KYC is that if you are a channel provider, you are effectively holding someone else's funds. If you are sending the funds, then technically you need a money transmitters license because you hold the funds and transmit them on your channel. It's more a protection for the user that is not running their own node and the duty to the holder of funds.

2a.) Your transactions happen on the payment channel so whoever has the main channel is logging all the connections. IE: coinbase is the payment channel. They will see where all your tx's are going using lightning but you and others will not. They have to keep records on the amount of funds in their channel and where it goes as part of KYC and KML. This was the whole idea behind binks (bitcoin banks). Now you will be in a membership network (federated) with routing protocols that run through trusted networks. Although only the next destination and previous destination are kept on any given node, the actual channel logs the receipt. Until the channel is closed and written to main. Dude's description about lightning and how it routes is technically correct. Also it would appear the issue with KYC/KML is also likely correct given what we've seen by regulators. They want to know who the people are, ie: bittrex and the "random" closing of accounts. This is way more factual than the "expensive full node" comment.

3.) Yeah, better to use a separate crypto than open up a channel. Personally i don't see the benefit.

4.) Blockstream as the developer of the application has taken over bitcoin and now its ecosystem which is what the "decentralized" community didn't like. While mining itself is centralized, they don't work to censor discussion or transaction like they are constantly accused of doing. It's a bit of projection since, blockstream employees dictated the transition to 2nd layers. Anyone can set it up, using THEIR software..

5.) Look at comment 1. BTW that BS. about expensive servers is bs. I run bitcoin cash node on a pi 3 ($50) and an old drive 320 GB taken from a laptop from 2010 ($5 case) and its only half full with the current blockchain, total cost $55. Been running it since August without any issues. So its basically cow poo argument until there's real adoption. Even then a 1 tb sata hd is not expensive and would only need to be replaced if the entire world was using bitcoin cash once every couple of years. The real constraint is bandwith, which blockstream satellite is the $20k server you speak of. Otherwise a cheap laptop and uncapped internet, you're gtg.

Image

So this goes to show that blockstream has in fact taken over bitcoin with the 2nd layer solution and being the first for lightning that has 1000+ nodes running a total of a whopping 5.5 btc.

The real question is since bitcoin core/blockstream has alienated the people that actually use bitcoin for transactions. Is there enough life in new money coming in just to park their money into bitcoin BTC? The goal is to treat bitcoin as a stationary object with a 2nd layer setup to facilitate transactions to users who are trained not to use it for transactions.

Personally because of this issue. I use ETH for the majority of anything i do. Buying through the onramp, transactions between people, trading pairs on exchanges. It's faster and cheaper to send and has all the utility of what bitcoin used to do but now does not do or is not supposed to do.

Here's what current ETH vs. BTC looks like after 1 year. ETH volume is 4x BTC current volume. 184k tx BTC vs. 848k tx's ETH

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/tr ... th.html#1y

I still want to try and run litcoin node, i mean lightning node just to see what else i can see in the information flow as transactions route through the system. I would likely use the pi3 to run bitcoin cash full node, plex server, and lightning node but because of RAM limits would probably have to choose one running at any given time.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby tdtwedt » Tue Feb 13, 2018

Virtually Nobody Is Reporting Crypto Profits To The IRS

Fewer than 100 people out of the 250,000 who have already filed federal taxes this year through Credit Karma reported a cryptocurrency transaction, Reuters reported Tuesday.

This, despite nearly 57% of the 2000 Americans surveyed by the credit score startup and research firm Qualtrics last month saying they had realized some gains from cryptocurrencies last year, according to a Credit Karma study. About the same percentage of respondents said they had never reported a crypto transaction to the IRS. Meanwhile, about half said they understood how cryptocurrency gains might impact their taxes.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02- ... rofits-irs
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Tue Feb 13, 2018

57% of Americans surveyed saw a profit from crypto in 2017? Wow, crypto ownership is many times higher than previously reported.
Last edited by Long John on Tue Feb 13, 2018, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby tdtwedt » Tue Feb 13, 2018

Long John wrote:57% of Americans surveyed saw a profit from crypto in 2017? Wow, crypto ownership is many times higher than previously reported.



:pop:
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Re: Bitcoins - fad or trend?

Postby Long John » Tue Feb 13, 2018

But this is wonderful. Crypto is mainstream and nobody except this Qualtrics company knew it! Presumably total crypto participation is considerably higher than 57%, since not everyone makes money. Wait 'til Wall Street finds out that more people own crypto than own stock!

:roll:

All right, obviously something is hinky with those numbers, since most people have barely even heard of crypto, must less bought it, much less stayed with it through the crashes and made money. Perhaps out of those surveyed who said they had participated in crypto, 57% said they made a profit. That at least seems plausible.


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