Bwahahaha! Point well-taken Rik.
There are 2 types of Bitcoin investors, HODLers and Traders.
HODLer's believe in the technology and utility of Bitcoin. HOLDers consist of 2 different groups, which are (1) Those who bought in early; and (2) Those who bought in late ($8K+).
The first group might check the price every 3-4 days. They are comfortable in their investment. The 2nd group thumb their phone every day, just waiting to get out at a break-even price, so they can sell their investment without a loss. This second group is classified as "overhead supply", are considered to be "weak hands"and until they finally get out, will an investment be "free to run"
Bitcoin is easily manipulated. The "float" = the available of physical market supply, and is estimated to be 800K to 1.4M Bitcoin daily. CoinMarketCap (CMC) uses data from many questionable exchanges, and therefore their data is suspect and usually inaccurate. CMC pieces might be useful for alt-coins, but it is useless for Bitcoin.
In many countries, Bitcoin is sold with a high premium attached. CoinBase, Gemini, and Bakkt provide accurate "real-time" physical delivery prices. CMC is for alt-coins only.
Traders are speculators, willing to buy or sell Bitcoin on a short term basis, usually intraday or maybe a swing trade of a week or 2 during a bull-run", either long or short.or a "short". Both long and short positions must be physically backed by the number of Bitcoins in the transactions. Profits or losses are settled in physical Bitcoin, not cash. CME futures are cash-settled, BAKKT is physical. The end of day BAKKT price is probably going to be the most accurate price indicator.
Your position size can have a significant effect on the market price and action of Bitcoin. The market for Bitcoin is manipulated, but so are the prices of oil, sugar, coffee, and gasoline, among others.
90% of Bitcoin is held by 10% of the outstanding wallets. How many Bitcoin does it take to be a whale?
Are 10 Bitcoins enough to be classified as a whale. Will a 10 Bitcoin limit order move the market? I doubt it, and if it did, the prices would probably revert to equilibrium very quickly.
Many traders use technical analysis, but TA is based primarily on the price actions of stocks, and some commodities. Bitcoin is asymmetrical to those investments, but a few of the the TA indicators still work, such as moving averages, flags, triangles, and pendants. Longer term, I always watch for a cup and handle formation when something has traded sideways for 3 months of more.
In my particular situation, I bought low and hung on. When Bitcoin hit $20K, I was really tempted to sell out, but I was convinced by this time that Bitcoin was not a ponzi scheme, and my purchase price was really low. I used to consider myself a HODLer, even though I was checking the price every 15 minutes. It was only after the last meltdown that I stopped watching the price daily. Same thing with silver.
These are not lottery tickets. I bought these investments to own, and have no intentions to sell.
One last item:
I get a lot of humor from postings like these. tdtwedt is an easy target. Here are of last postings.
Bitcoin broke below 7K this morning. Now just above 7K.
Bitcoin below 8k
He has been trying to beat-up Boeing in the Stock Talk forum. His postings here and in Stock Talk are a waste of time, and in 5 years, I have never seen him positive anything positive from him about gold, silver, stocks, or Bitcoin. Sad, but I'll usually give him a shout-out on the political cartoons.
In the battle for investment survival, you need to be a tank, not a Lamborghini.
For you traders: Is it really worth your time, money, and risk to trade? There are a few legendary traders, but most traders go bust or lose money. Stay strong and HODL
Stay strong and HODL.